Commit b43c061c4d3c5750c9a9a1f7c0d170266ba78556

Authored by Francisco Coelho
1 parent eb584496
Exists in master

rewriting 00_PASP for scholarship project

README.md
1 1 # Probabilistic ILP
2 2  
  3 +**Check** Conformal prediction.
  4 +
3 5 > Fonte: [Turning 30: New Ideas in Inductive Logic Programming](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.11002)
4 6  
5 7 ## Introduction
... ... @@ -62,4 +64,4 @@ Recursion; Predicate Invention; Higher order, ASP Hypotheses; Optimality; Prolog
62 64  
63 65 ## Applications
64 66  
65   -### ELearning
66 67 \ No newline at end of file
  68 +### ELearning
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SCASP-best-practices.pdf 0 → 100644
No preview for this file type
msc/Empty File 0 → 100644
task_01/proposal.md
... ... @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
6 6  
7 7 Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a logic programming paradigm based on the Stable Model semantics of Normal Logic Programs (NP) that can be implemented using the latest advances in SAT solving technology. ASP is a truly declarative language that supports language constructs such as disjunction in the head of a clause, choice rules, and hard and weak constraints.
8 8  
9   -The Distribution Semantics (DS) is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. Probabilistic Facts (PF) are the most basic stochastic DS primitive and they take the form of logical facts labelled with a probability $p$; Each probabilistic fact represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $1 − p$.
  9 +The Distribution Semantics (DS) is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. Probabilistic Facts (PF) are the most basic stochastic DS primitive and they take the form of logical facts labeled with a probability $p$; Each probabilistic fact represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $1 − p$.
10 10  
11 11 Crucially, a joint distribution of atoms derived from an ASP specification can be used to _quantitatively measure the performance of that specification_ given data observed from the system it is intended to describe. Then, given competing specifications to describe a certain system, these performance measures can be applied in various optimization techniques in order to obtain one that best describes the target system.
12 12  
... ... @@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ A team of two **(or three?)** researchers and a graduate student, working over s
36 36 - The formalization of the methods outlined above including the parameter estimation from observations and the joint distribution extending the probabilities of the stable models.
37 37 - Application and evaluation of this approach to well-known problems, using available software tools, such as
38 38 - Problems: **Assim, de momento, não me lembro de nenhum!**
39   - - Software tools: [`s(casp)`](https://ciao-lang.org/playground/scasp.html), Potassco suit, _etc._
  39 + - Software tools: [`s(casp)`](https://ciao-lang.org/playground/scasp.html), [Potassco suit](https://potassco.org/), _etc._
40 40  
41 41 ## References
42 42  
... ... @@ -44,4 +44,4 @@ A team of two **(or three?)** researchers and a graduate student, working over s
44 44 2. Andrew Cropper, Sebastijan Dumancic, Richard Evans, Stephen H. Muggleton, Inductive logic programming at 30 (2021)
45 45 3. Fabio Gagliardi Cozman, Denis Deratani Mauá, The joy of Probabilistic Answer Set Programming: Semantics - complexity, expressivity, inference (2020)
46 46 4. Fabrizio Riguzzi, Foundations of Probabilistic Logic Programming Languages, Semantics, Inference and Learning. Rivers Publishers (2018)
47   -6. Martin Gebser, Roland Kaminski, Benjamin Kaufmann, and Torsten Schaub, Answer Set Solving in Practice, Morgan & Claypool Publishers (2013)
48 47 \ No newline at end of file
  48 +6. Martin Gebser, Roland Kaminski, Benjamin Kaufmann, and Torsten Schaub, Answer Set Solving in Practice, Morgan & Claypool Publishers (2013)
... ...
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1 1 \documentclass{beamer}
2   -
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3 7 \setbeamertemplate{navigation symbols}{}
4   -\setbeamertemplate{itemize items}[circle]
5   -
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8 24  
9 25 \usepackage{tikz}
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28 44 \newcommand{\deft}[1]{\textbf{#1}}
29 45 \newcommand{\pset}[1]{\ensuremath{\mathbb{P}\at{#1}}}
30 46 \newcommand{\ent}{\ensuremath{\lhd}}
  47 +\newcommand{\cset}[2]{\ensuremath{\set{#1,~#2}}}
31 48 \newcommand{\langof}[1]{\ensuremath{\fml{L}\at{#1}}}
32 49 \newcommand{\uset}[1]{\ensuremath{\left|{#1}\right>}}
33 50 \newcommand{\lset}[1]{\ensuremath{\left<{#1}\right|}}
  51 +\newcommand{\pr}[1]{\ensuremath{\mathrm{p}\at{#1}}}
34 52 %
35 53 % Identificação deste documento
36 54 %
37 55 \title{Zugzwang}
38   -\subtitle{Stochastic Adventures in Inductive Logic Specifications}
  56 +\subtitle{Stochastic Adventures in Inductive Logic}
39 57 \author{Francisco Coelho}
40 58 \institute[\texttt{fc@uevora.pt}]{
41   - Departamento de Informática\\
42   - Universidade de Évora
  59 + Departamento de Informática, Universidade de Évora\\
  60 + High Performance Computing Chair\\
  61 + NOVA-LINCS
43 62 }
44 63  
45 64 \begin{document}
46 65 %
47 66 \begin{frame}[plain]
48 67 \titlepage
49   -\note{The goal of this text is to **explore how ASP specifications with probabilistic facts** can lead to characterizations of the **joint distributions** of the specification's atoms.}
50 68 \end{frame}
51 69  
52 70 \section{Introduction}
53 71  
54 72  
55 73 \begin{frame}{Notation and Assumptions}
56   - \note{We start with **common notations and assumptions**.}
  74 + % --------------------------------
57 75 \begin{itemize}
58   - \item The \textbf{complement} of $x$ is $\co{x} = 1 - x$.
59   - \item A \textbf{probabilistic atomic choice} $\alpha:a$ defines the disjunction $a \lor \neg a$ and assigns probabilities $P\at{a} = \alpha, P\at{\neg a} = \co{\alpha}$.
60   - \item $\delta a$ denotes the \textbf{disjunction} $a \lor \neg a$ associated to the probabilistic choice $\alpha : a$ and $\delta\! \set{\alpha: a, a \in A} = \set{\delta a, a \in A}$ for any set of atoms $A$.
61   - \item We adopt the the \textbf{closed world assumption}, where $\naf x \models \neg x$.
62   - \item And also assume that \textbf{probabilistic choices} and \textbf{subgoals} are iid.
  76 + % --------------------------------
  77 + \item $\co{x} = 1 - x$.
  78 + % --------------------------------
  79 + \item \textbf{Probabilistic Atomic Choice (PAC):} $\alpha :: a$ defines $a \lor \neg a$ and probabilities $\pr{a} = \alpha, \pr{\neg a} = \co{\alpha}$.
  80 + % --------------------------------
  81 + \item $\delta a$ denotes $a \lor \neg a$ and $\delta\! \set{\alpha :: a, a \in \fml{A}} = \set{\delta a, a \in \fml{A}}$ for a set of atoms $\fml{A}$.
  82 + % --------------------------------
  83 + \item \textbf{Closed World Assumption:} $\naf x \models \neg x$.
  84 + % --------------------------------
  85 + % \item Probabilistic choices and sub-goals are independent.
  86 + % --------------------------------
63 87 \end{itemize}
64   - \note{**Subgoals are IID** means that ???}
  88 + % --------------------------------
65 89 \end{frame}
66   -
  90 +% ================================================================
67 91 \begin{frame}{General Setting}
68   - \note{Next, we consider the following **general setting**}
69   - Let $\fml{A}$ be a set of \textbf{atoms}, $\overline{\fml{A}} = \set{\neg a \middle| a \in \fml{A}}$ and $\fml{Z}$ the respective set of \textbf{observations},
70   - $$\fml{Z} = \set{z = \alpha \cup \beta \middle| \alpha \subseteq \fml{A} \land \beta \subseteq \overline{\fml{A}} }$$ and $\fml{I}$ the set of consistent observations or \textbf{interpretations}, $$\fml{I} = \set{z \in \fml{Z} \middle| \forall a \in \fml{A}~\abs{ \set{a, \neg a} \cap z} \leq 1}.$$
  92 + % --------------------------------
71 93 \begin{itemize}
72   - \item A \textbf{PASP program} is $P = C \land F \land R$ where
73   -
74   - \begin{itemize}
75   - \item $C = C_P = \set{\alpha_i : a_i \middle| i = 1:n}$ is a set of probabilistic atomic choices,
76   -
77   - \item $F = F_P$ is a set of (common) facts and
78   -
79   - \item $R = R_P$ is a set of (common) rules.
80   - \end{itemize}
81   -
82   - and the sets of atoms, observations and interpretations of program $P$ are denoted $\fml{A}_P, \fml{Z}_P$ and $\fml{I}_P$
  94 + % --------------------------------
  95 + \item \textbf{Atoms} $\fml{A}$,
  96 + $\overline{\fml{A}} = \cset{\neg a}{a \in \fml{A}}$,
  97 + % --------------------------------
  98 + \item \textbf{Observations} $\fml{Z}$:
  99 + $$\fml{Z} = \cset{z = \alpha \cup \beta }{ \alpha \subseteq \fml{A} \land \beta \subseteq \overline{\fml{A}} }$$
  100 + % --------------------------------
  101 + \item \textbf{Interpretations} or \textit{consistent observations} $\fml{I}$ :
  102 + $$\fml{I} = \cset{z \in \fml{Z} }{ \forall a \in \fml{A}~\envert{\set{a,\neg a} \cap z} \leq 1}.$$
  103 + % --------------------------------
  104 + \item \textit{PASP Problem} or \textbf{Specification:} $P = C \land F \land R$ where
  105 + % --------------------------------
  106 + \begin{itemize}
  107 + % --------------------------------
  108 + \item $C = C_P = \cset{\alpha_i :: a_i }{ i \in 1:n \land a_i \in \fml{A}}$ \textit{pacs}.
  109 + % --------------------------------
  110 + \item $F = F_P$ \textit{facts}.
  111 + % --------------------------------
  112 + \item $R = R_P$ \textit{rules}.
  113 + % --------------------------------
  114 + \item $\fml{A}_P, \fml{Z}_P$ and $\fml{I}_P$: \textit{atoms}, \textit{observations} and \textit{interpretations} of $P$.
  115 + \end{itemize}
  116 + % --------------------------------
  117 + \item \textbf{Stable Models} of $P$, $\fml{S} = \fml{S}_P$, are the stable models of $\delta P = \delta C + F + R$.
  118 + % --------------------------------
  119 + \end{itemize}
  120 + % --------------------------------
  121 +\end{frame}
  122 +% ================================================================
  123 +\begin{frame}{Distribution Semantics}
  124 + % --------------------------------
  125 + \begin{itemize}
  126 + % --------------------------------
  127 + \item \textbf{Total Choices:} $\Theta = \Theta_C = \Theta_P$ elements are $\theta = \set{c_1, \ldots, c_n}$ where $c_i$ is $a_i$ or $\neg a_i$.
  128 + % --------------------------------
  129 + %\item For $s\in\fml{S}$ let $\theta_s \subseteq s$ (unique \textit{total choice})
  130 + %\item Define $\fml{S}_\theta = \cset{s \in \fml{S}}{\theta \subset s}$.
  131 + % --------------------------------
83 132  
84   - \item The \textbf{stable models} of $P$ are the stable models of $\delta P = \delta C + F + R$ and the respective set is denoted $\fml{S} = \fml{S}_P$.
  133 + % --------------------------------
  134 + \item \textbf{Total Choice Probability:}
  135 + \begin{equation}
  136 + \pr{\theta} = \prod_{a_i \in \theta}\alpha_i \prod_{\neg a_i \in \theta}\co{\alpha_i}.\label{eq:prob.tc}
  137 + \end{equation}
  138 + % --------------------------------
85 139 \end{itemize}
  140 + % --------------------------------
  141 + \begin{quote}
  142 + This is the \emph{Distribution Semantics} as set by Sato.
  143 + \end{quote}
86 144 \end{frame}
87   -
88   -\begin{frame}
89   - \note{A model x has lower and upper "bounds".}
  145 +% ================================================================
  146 +\begin{frame}{Problem Statement}
  147 + % --------------------------------
  148 + \begin{quotation}
  149 + How to extend probability from the total choices to interpretations and observations?
  150 + \end{quotation}
  151 + % --------------------------------
  152 + \begin{itemize}
  153 + % --------------------------------
  154 + \item \textbf{Todo:} Extend probability to \textit{stable models}, \textit{interpretations} and \textit{observations}.
  155 + % --------------------------------
  156 + \end{itemize}
  157 + % --------------------------------
  158 + \begin{quotation}
  159 + \textbf{But} there is a problem extending probability from total choices to stable models.
  160 + \end{quotation}
  161 + % --------------------------------
  162 +\end{frame}
  163 +% ================================================================
  164 +\begin{frame}{The Disjunction Case}
  165 + % --------------------------------
  166 + \begin{exampleblock}{Disjuntion Example}
  167 + The specification
  168 + % --------------------------------
  169 + $$
  170 + \begin{aligned}
  171 + 0.3 :: a &, \cr
  172 + b \lor c &\larr a .
  173 + \end{aligned}
  174 + $$
  175 + % --------------------------------
  176 + has three stable models,
  177 + % --------------------------------
  178 + $$
  179 + \begin{aligned}
  180 + s_1 &= \set{\neg a}, & s_2 &= \set{a, b}, & s_3 &= \set{a, c}.
  181 + \end{aligned}
  182 + $$
  183 + \end{exampleblock}
  184 + % --------------------------------
  185 + \begin{itemize}
  186 + % --------------------------------
  187 + \item\label{prop:unique.ext.tcsm}\textit{Any stable model contains exactly one total choice.~$\blacksquare$}
  188 + % --------------------------------
  189 + \item $\pr{\set{\neg a}} = 0.7$ is straightforward.
  190 + % --------------------------------
  191 + \item But, no \textit{unbiased} choice for $\alpha\in\intcc{0,1}$ in
  192 + $$
  193 + \begin{aligned}
  194 + \pr{\set{a, b}} &= 0.3 \alpha, \cr
  195 + \pr{\set{a, c}} &= 0.3 \co{\alpha}.
  196 + \end{aligned}
  197 + $$
  198 + % --------------------------------
  199 + \end{itemize}
  200 + % --------------------------------
  201 +\end{frame}
  202 +% ================================================================
  203 +\section{Motivation}
  204 +% ================================================================
  205 +\begin{frame}{Specification, Data \& Evaluation}
  206 + % --------------------------------
  207 + Given some procedure to assign probabilities to observations from specifications and:
  208 + % --------------------------------
  209 + \begin{itemize}
  210 + % --------------------------------
  211 + \item $P$, a specification.
  212 + % --------------------------------
  213 + \item $p$, the distribution of observations from above.
  214 + % --------------------------------
  215 + \item $Z$, a dataset of observations.
  216 + % --------------------------------
  217 + \item $e$, the respective empirical distribution.
  218 + % --------------------------------
  219 + \item $D$, some probability divergence, \textit{e.g.} Kullback-Leibler.
  220 + % --------------------------------
  221 + \end{itemize}
  222 + % --------------------------------
  223 + Given a dataset $Z$, $D\at{P} = D\at{e, p}$ is a \textit{performance} measure of $P$ and can be used, \textit{e.g.} fitness, by algorithms searching for optimal specifications of a dataset.
  224 + % --------------------------------
  225 +\end{frame}
  226 +% ================================================================
  227 +\section{Resolution}
  228 +% ================================================================
  229 +\begin{frame}{Bounds of Interpretations}
  230 + % --------------------------------
90 231 \begin{itemize}
91   - \item \textbf{Proposition.} Let $x\in\fml{I}$ be an interpretation.
  232 + % --------------------------------
  233 + \item For $x\in\fml{I}$:
  234 + % --------------------------------
92 235 \begin{itemize}
93   - \item[Lower Models] $\lset{x} = \set{s\in \fml{S} \middle| s \subseteq x}$.
94   -
95   - \item[Upper Models] $\uset{x} = \set{s\in \fml{S} \middle| x \subseteq s}$.
  236 + % --------------------------------
  237 + \item \textbf{Lower Models:} $\lset{x} = \cset{s\in \fml{S} }{ s \subseteq x}$.
  238 + % --------------------------------
  239 + \item \textbf{Upper Models:} $\uset{x} = \cset{s\in \fml{S} }{ x \subseteq s}$.
  240 + % --------------------------------
96 241 \end{itemize}
97   - \note{If $a$ is a lower model and $b$ an upper model, since stable models are minimal, must be $a = b = x$.}
98   -
99   - \item Exactly one of the following cases takes place:
  242 + % --------------------------------
  243 + \item\label{prop:lucases} \textbf{Proposition.} Stable models are \textit{minimal} so \textit{one} of the following cases takes place:
  244 + % --------------------------------
100 245 \begin{enumerate}
101   - %
  246 + % --------------------------------
102 247 \item\label{prop:lucases.a} $\lset{x} = \set{x} = \uset{x}$ and $x$ is a stable model.
103   - %
  248 + % --------------------------------
104 249 \item\label{prop:lucases.b} $\lset{x} \neq \emptyset \land \uset{x} = \emptyset$.
105   - %
  250 + % --------------------------------
106 251 \item\label{prop:lucases.c} $\lset{x} = \emptyset \land \uset{x} \neq \emptyset$.
107   - %
  252 + % --------------------------------
108 253 \item\label{prop:lucases.d} $\lset{x} = \emptyset = \uset{x}$.
  254 + % --------------------------------
109 255 \end{enumerate}
  256 + % --------------------------------
110 257 \end{itemize}
  258 + % --------------------------------
111 259 \end{frame}
112   -
113   -\begin{frame}
114   - \note{Total choice are key to define probability of a clause.}
115   - \begin{itemize}
116   - \item The probabilistic facts $C$ define a set $\Theta = \Theta_C$ of \textbf{total choices}, with $2^n$ elements, each one a set $\theta = \set{c_1, \ldots, c_n}$ where $c_i$ is either $a_i$ or $\neg a_i$.
117   -
118   - \item For each stable model $s\in\fml{S}$ let $\theta_s$ be the unique \textbf{total choice} contained in $s$ and $\fml{S}_\theta \subseteq \fml{S}$ the set of stable models that contains $\theta$.
119   -
120   - \item Define
121   - \begin{equation}
122   - p\at{\theta} = \prod_{a_i \in \theta}\alpha_i \prod_{\neg a_i \in \theta}\co{\alpha_i}.\label{eq:prob.tc}
123   - \end{equation}
124   - \end{itemize}
125   -\end{frame}
126   -
127   -
128   -\begin{frame}
129   - \note{Relate stable models with Sato's probabilistic semantics}
130   - \begin{quotation}
131   - The problem we address is how to \textbf{assign probabilities to observations} given that a total choice might entail zero or many stable models \emph{i.e.} How to assign probabilities to the stable models of $\fml{S}_\theta$ when $\envert{\fml{S}_\theta} \not= 1$?
132   - \end{quotation}
133   -\end{frame}
134   -
135   -\begin{frame}
136   - \note{There are some problems}
137   -
138   - As it turns out, it is quite easy to come out with a program from which result no single probability distribution. For example
139   - $$
140   - \begin{aligned}
141   - 0.3:a,& \cr
142   - b \lor c \larr& a.
143   - \end{aligned}
144   - $$
145   - has three stable models
146   - $$
147   - \begin{aligned}
148   - s_1 &= \set{\neg a} \cr
149   - s_2 &= \set{a, b} \cr
150   - s_3 &= \set{a, c}
151   - \end{aligned}
152   - $$
153   - and while $p\at{\set{\neg a}} = 0.7$ is quite natural, we have no further information to support the choice of a singular $\alpha\in\intcc{0,1}$ in the assignment
154   - $$
155   - \begin{aligned}
156   - p\at{\set{a, b}} &= 0.3 \alpha \cr
157   - p\at{\set{a, c}} &= 0.3 \co{\alpha}
158   - \end{aligned}
159   - $$
160   -\end{frame}
161   -
  260 +% ================================================================
162 261 \begin{frame}
163 262  
164   - Next we try to formalize the possible configurations of this scenario. Consider the ASP program $P = C \land F \land R$ with total choices $\Theta $ and stable models $\fml{S}$. Let $d : \fml{S} \to \intcc{0,1}$ such that $\sum_{s\in\fml{S}_\theta} d\at{s} = 1$.
  263 + Next we try to formalize the possible configurations of this scenario. Consider the ASP program $P = C \land F \land R$ with total choices $\Theta $ and stable models $\fml{S}$. Let $d :: \fml{S} \to \intcc{0,1}$ such that $\sum_{s\in\fml{S}_\theta} d\at{s} = 1$.
165 264 \end{frame}
166   -
  265 +% ================================================================
167 266 \begin{frame}
168 267  
169 268 \begin{enumerate}
... ... @@ -176,7 +275,7 @@
176 275 %
177 276 \item $z$ is an interpretation and $\lset{z} = \set{z} = \uset{x}$. Then $z = s$ is a stable model and \textbf{define}
178 277 \begin{equation}
179   - w_d\at{z} = w\at{s} = d\at{s} p\at{\theta_s}.\label{eq:prob.sm}
  278 + w_d\at{z} = w\at{s} = d\at{s} \pr{\theta_s}.\label{eq:prob.sm}
180 279 \end{equation}
181 280 %
182 281 \item $z$ is an interpretation and $\lset{z} \neq \emptyset \land \uset{x} = \emptyset$. Then \textbf{define}
... ... @@ -197,36 +296,36 @@
197 296 %
198 297 \item The last point defines a ``weight'' function on the observations that depends not only on the total choices and stable models of a PASP but also on a certain function $d$ that must respect some conditions. To simplify the notation we use the subscript in $w_d$ only when necessary.
199 298 %
200   - \item At first, it may seem counter-intuitive that $w\at{\emptyset} = \sum_{s\in\fml{S}} w\at{s}$ is the largest ``weight'' in the lattice. But $\emptyset$, as an interpretation, sets zero restrictions on the ``compatible'' stable models. The ``complement'' of $\bot = \emptyset$ is the \emph{maximal inconsistent} observation $\top = \fml{A} \cup \set{\neg a \middle| a \in \fml{A}}$.
  299 + \item At first, it may seem counter-intuitive that $w\at{\emptyset} = \sum_{s\in\fml{S}} w\at{s}$ is the largest ``weight'' in the lattice. But $\emptyset$, as an interpretation, sets zero restrictions on the ``compatible'' stable models. The ``complement'' of $\bot = \emptyset$ is the \emph{maximal inconsistent} observation $\top = \fml{A} \cup \cset{\neg a }{ a \in \fml{A}}$.
201 300 %
202 301 \item \textbf{We haven't yet defined a probability measure.} To do so we must define a set of samples $\Omega$, a set of events $F\subseteq \pset{\Omega}$ and a function $P:F\to\intcc{0,1}$ such that:
203 302 \begin{enumerate}
204   - \item $P\at{E} \in \intcc{0, 1}$ for any $E \in F$.
205   - \item $P\at{\Omega} = 1$.
206   - \item if $E_1 \cap E_2 = \emptyset$ then $P\at{E_1 \cup E_2} = P\at{E_1} + P\at{E_2}$.
  303 + \item $\pr{E} \in \intcc{0, 1}$ for any $E \in F$.
  304 + \item $\pr{\Omega} = 1$.
  305 + \item if $E_1 \cap E_2 = \emptyset$ then $\pr{E_1 \cup E_2} = \pr{E_1} + \pr{E_2}$.
207 306 \end{enumerate}
208 307 %
209 308 \item In the following, assume that the stable models are iid.
210 309 %
211 310 \item Let the sample space $\Omega = \fml{Z}$ and the event space $F = \pset{\Omega}$. Define $Z = \sum_{\zeta\in\fml{Z}} w\at{\zeta}$ and
212 311 \begin{equation}
213   - P\at{z} = \frac{w\at{z}}{Z}, z \in \Omega \label{eq:def.prob}
  312 + \pr{z} = \frac{w\at{z}}{Z}, z \in \Omega \label{eq:def.prob}
214 313 \end{equation}
215 314 and
216 315 \begin{equation}
217   - P\at{E} = \sum_{x\in E} P\at{x}, E \subseteq \Omega. \label{eq:def.prob.event}
  316 + \pr{E} = \sum_{x\in E} \pr{x}, E \subseteq \Omega. \label{eq:def.prob.event}
218 317 \end{equation}
219 318 Now:
220 319 \begin{enumerate}
221 320 \item $P(E) \in \intcc{0,1}$ results directly from the definitions of $P$ and $w$.
222   - \item $P\at{\Omega} = 1$ also results directly from the definitions.
  321 + \item $\pr{\Omega} = 1$ also results directly from the definitions.
223 322 \item Consider two disjunct events $A, B \subset \Omega \land A \cap B = \emptyset$. Then
224 323 $$
225 324 \begin{aligned}
226   - P\at{A \cup B} &= \sum_{x \in A \cup B} P\at{x} \cr
227   - &= \sum_{x \in A} P\at{x} + \sum_{x \in B} P\at{x} - \sum_{x \in A \cap B} P\at{x} \cr
228   - &= \sum_{x \in A} P\at{x} + \sum_{x \in B} P\at{x} &\text{because}~A\cap B = \emptyset \cr
229   - &= P\at{A} + P\at{B}.
  325 + \pr{A \cup B} &= \sum_{x \in A \cup B} \pr{x} \cr
  326 + &= \sum_{x \in A} \pr{x} + \sum_{x \in B} \pr{x} - \sum_{x \in A \cap B} \pr{x} \cr
  327 + &= \sum_{x \in A} \pr{x} + \sum_{x \in B} \pr{x} &\text{because}~A\cap B = \emptyset \cr
  328 + &= \pr{A} + \pr{B}.
230 329 \end{aligned}
231 330 $$
232 331 \item So $\del{\Omega = \fml{Z}, F = \pset{\Omega}, P}$ is a probability space. {$\blacksquare$}
... ... @@ -234,10 +333,11 @@
234 333 \end{enumerate}
235 334  
236 335 \end{frame}
237   -
  336 +% ================================================================
238 337 \section{Cases \& Examples}
  338 +% ================================================================
239 339 \subsection{Programs with disjunctive heads}
240   -
  340 +% ================================================================
241 341 \begin{frame}
242 342  
243 343 Consider the program:
... ... @@ -263,10 +363,9 @@
263 363 \end{aligned}
264 364 $$
265 365 \end{frame}
266   -
267   -
  366 +% ================================================================
268 367 \begin{frame}
269   - Suppose that we add an annotation $\alpha:a$, which entails $\co{\alpha}:\neg a$. This is enough to get $w\at{s_1} = \co{\alpha}$ but, on the absence of further information, no fixed probability can be assigned to either model $s_2, s_3$ except that the respective sum must be $\alpha$. So, expressing our lack of knowledge using a parameter $d \in \intcc{0, 1}$ we get:
  368 + Suppose that we add an annotation $\alpha :: a$, which entails $\co{\alpha} :: \neg a$. This is enough to get $w\at{s_1} = \co{\alpha}$ but, on the absence of further information, no fixed probability can be assigned to either model $s_2, s_3$ except that the respective sum must be $\alpha$. So, expressing our lack of knowledge using a parameter $d \in \intcc{0, 1}$ we get:
270 369 $$
271 370 \begin{cases}
272 371 w\at{s_1 } = &\co{\alpha}\cr
... ... @@ -275,7 +374,7 @@
275 374 \end{cases}
276 375 $$
277 376 \end{frame}
278   -
  377 +% ================================================================
279 378 \begin{frame}
280 379  
281 380 Now consider all the interpretations for this program:
... ... @@ -285,11 +384,11 @@
285 384 %
286 385 \node [draw, circle] (E) at (5.5,0) {$\emptyset$};
287 386 %
288   - \node [draw, circle] (a) at (2,2) {$a$};
289   - \node [draw, circle] (b) at (3,2) {$b$};
  387 + \node [draw, circle] (a) at (3,2) {$a$};
  388 + \node [draw, circle] (b) at (2,2) {$b$};
290 389 \node [draw, circle] (c) at (4,2) {$c$};
291   - \node [fill=gray!50] (A) at (9,2) {$\co{a}$};
292   - \node (B) at (8,2) {$\co{b}$};
  390 + \node [fill=gray!50] (A) at (8,2) {$\co{a}$};
  391 + \node (B) at (9,2) {$\co{b}$};
293 392 \node (C) at (7,2) {$\co{c}$};
294 393 %
295 394 \node [fill=gray!50] (ab) at (0,4) {$ab$};
... ... @@ -338,7 +437,7 @@
338 437 \end{tikzpicture}
339 438 \end{center}
340 439 \end{frame}
341   -
  440 +% ================================================================
342 441 \begin{frame}
343 442  
344 443 In this diagram:
... ... @@ -378,7 +477,7 @@
378 477 $$
379 478 \item Now some statistics are possible. For example we get
380 479 $$
381   - P\at{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} = \frac{0.09 d \left(d - 1\right)}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9}
  480 + \pr{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} = \frac{0.09 d \left(d - 1\right)}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9}
382 481 $$.
383 482  
384 483 \item This expression can be plotted for $d\in\intcc{0,1}$
... ... @@ -386,10 +485,10 @@
386 485 \includegraphics[height=15em]{Pabc_alpha03.pdf}
387 486 \end{center}
388 487  
389   - \item If a data set $E$ entails \emph{e.g.} $P\at{abc \mid E} = 0.0015$ we can numerically solve
  488 + \item If a data set $E$ entails \emph{e.g.} $\pr{abc \mid E} = 0.0015$ we can numerically solve
390 489 $$
391 490 \begin{aligned}
392   - P\at{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} &= P\at{abc \mid E} \cr
  491 + \pr{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} &= \pr{abc \mid E} \cr
393 492 \iff\cr
394 493 \frac{0.09 d \del{d - 1}}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9} &= 0.0015
395 494 \end{aligned}
... ... @@ -397,10 +496,9 @@
397 496 which has two solutions, $d \approx 0.15861$ or $d \approx 0.83138$.
398 497 \end{itemize}
399 498 \end{frame}
400   -
  499 +% ================================================================
401 500 \subsection{Non-stratified programs}
402   -
403   -
  501 +% ================================================================
404 502 \begin{frame}
405 503 The following LP is non-stratified, because has a cycle with negated arcs:
406 504 $$
... ... @@ -429,13 +527,13 @@
429 527 }.
430 528 $$
431 529 \end{frame}
432   -
  530 +% ================================================================
433 531 \begin{frame}
434 532  
435   - Looking into probabilistic interpretations of the program and/or its models, we define $\alpha = P\at{\Theta = \theta_1}\in\intcc{0, 1}$ and $P\at{\Theta = \theta_2} = \co{\alpha}$.
  533 + Looking into probabilistic interpretations of the program and/or its models, we define $\alpha = \pr{\Theta = \theta_1}\in\intcc{0, 1}$ and $\pr{\Theta = \theta_2} = \co{\alpha}$.
436 534  
437   - Since $s_1$ is the only stable model that results from $\Theta = \theta_1$, it is natural to extend $P\at{ s_1 } = P\at{\Theta = \theta_1} = \alpha$. However, there is no clear way to assign $P\at{s_2}, P\at{s_3}$ since \emph{both models result from the single total choice} $\Theta = \theta_2$. Clearly,
438   - $$P\at{s_2 \mid \Theta} + P\at{s_3 \mid \Theta} =
  535 + Since $s_1$ is the only stable model that results from $\Theta = \theta_1$, it is natural to extend $\pr{ s_1 } = \pr{\Theta = \theta_1} = \alpha$. However, there is no clear way to assign $\pr{s_2}, \pr{s_3}$ since \emph{both models result from the single total choice} $\Theta = \theta_2$. Clearly,
  536 + $$\pr{s_2 \mid \Theta} + \pr{s_3 \mid \Theta} =
439 537 \begin{cases}
440 538 0 & \text{if}~\Theta = \theta_1\cr
441 539 1 & \text{if}~\Theta = \theta_2
... ... @@ -444,16 +542,15 @@
444 542 but further assumptions are not supported \emph{a priori}. So let's \textbf{parameterize} the equation above,
445 543 $$
446 544 \begin{cases}
447   - P\at{s_2 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\beta \in \intcc{0, 1} \cr
448   - P\at{s_3 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\co{\beta},
  545 + \pr{s_2 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\beta \in \intcc{0, 1} \cr
  546 + \pr{s_3 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\co{\beta},
449 547 \end{cases}
450 548 $$
451 549 in order to explicit our knowledge, or lack of, with numeric values and relations.
452 550 \end{frame}
453   -
454   -
  551 +% ================================================================
455 552 \begin{frame}
456   - Now we are able to define the \textbf{joint distribution} of the boolean random variables $A,B,C$, :
  553 + Now we are able to define the \textbf{joint distribution} of the boolean random variables $A,B,C$:
457 554  
458 555 $$
459 556 \begin{array}{cc|l}
... ... @@ -467,10 +564,9 @@
467 564 $$
468 565 where $\alpha, \beta\in\intcc{0,1}$.
469 566 \end{frame}
470   -
  567 +% ================================================================
471 568 \section{Conclusions}
472   -
473   -
  569 +% ================================================================
474 570 \begin{frame}
475 571 \begin{itemize}
476 572 \item We can use the basics of probability theory and logic programming to assign explicit \emph{parameterized} probabilities to the (stable) models of a program.
... ... @@ -479,10 +575,9 @@
479 575 \item However, it is non-restrictive since \emph{no unusual assumptions are made}.
480 576 \end{itemize}
481 577 \end{frame}
482   -
  578 +% ================================================================
483 579 \section*{ASP \& related definitions}
484   -
485   -
  580 +% ================================================================
486 581 \begin{frame}
487 582  
488 583 \begin{itemize}
... ... @@ -536,4 +631,5 @@
536 631 \end{itemize}
537 632 \end{itemize}
538 633 \end{frame}
  634 +% ================================================================
539 635 \end{document}
540 636 \ No newline at end of file
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text/00_PASP.toc
1 1 \beamer@sectionintoc {1}{Introduction}{2}{0}{1}
2   -\beamer@sectionintoc {2}{Cases \& Examples}{10}{0}{2}
3   -\beamer@subsectionintoc {2}{1}{Programs with disjunctive heads}{10}{0}{2}
4   -\beamer@subsectionintoc {2}{2}{Non-stratified programs}{14}{0}{2}
5   -\beamer@sectionintoc {3}{Conclusions}{18}{0}{3}
  2 +\beamer@sectionintoc {2}{Motivation}{8}{0}{2}
  3 +\beamer@sectionintoc {3}{Resolution}{10}{0}{3}
  4 +\beamer@sectionintoc {4}{Cases \& Examples}{14}{0}{4}
  5 +\beamer@subsectionintoc {4}{1}{Programs with disjunctive heads}{15}{0}{4}
  6 +\beamer@subsectionintoc {4}{2}{Non-stratified programs}{20}{0}{4}
  7 +\beamer@sectionintoc {5}{Conclusions}{25}{0}{5}
... ...
text/00_PASP.xdv
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