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README.md
1 | 1 | # Probabilistic ILP |
2 | 2 | |
3 | +**Check** Conformal prediction. | |
4 | + | |
3 | 5 | > Fonte: [Turning 30: New Ideas in Inductive Logic Programming](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.11002) |
4 | 6 | |
5 | 7 | ## Introduction |
... | ... | @@ -62,4 +64,4 @@ Recursion; Predicate Invention; Higher order, ASP Hypotheses; Optimality; Prolog |
62 | 64 | |
63 | 65 | ## Applications |
64 | 66 | |
65 | -### ELearning | |
66 | 67 | \ No newline at end of file |
68 | +### ELearning | ... | ... |
No preview for this file type
task_01/proposal.md
... | ... | @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ |
6 | 6 | |
7 | 7 | Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a logic programming paradigm based on the Stable Model semantics of Normal Logic Programs (NP) that can be implemented using the latest advances in SAT solving technology. ASP is a truly declarative language that supports language constructs such as disjunction in the head of a clause, choice rules, and hard and weak constraints. |
8 | 8 | |
9 | -The Distribution Semantics (DS) is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. Probabilistic Facts (PF) are the most basic stochastic DS primitive and they take the form of logical facts labelled with a probability $p$; Each probabilistic fact represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $1 − p$. | |
9 | +The Distribution Semantics (DS) is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. Probabilistic Facts (PF) are the most basic stochastic DS primitive and they take the form of logical facts labeled with a probability $p$; Each probabilistic fact represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $1 − p$. | |
10 | 10 | |
11 | 11 | Crucially, a joint distribution of atoms derived from an ASP specification can be used to _quantitatively measure the performance of that specification_ given data observed from the system it is intended to describe. Then, given competing specifications to describe a certain system, these performance measures can be applied in various optimization techniques in order to obtain one that best describes the target system. |
12 | 12 | |
... | ... | @@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ A team of two **(or three?)** researchers and a graduate student, working over s |
36 | 36 | - The formalization of the methods outlined above including the parameter estimation from observations and the joint distribution extending the probabilities of the stable models. |
37 | 37 | - Application and evaluation of this approach to well-known problems, using available software tools, such as |
38 | 38 | - Problems: **Assim, de momento, não me lembro de nenhum!** |
39 | - - Software tools: [`s(casp)`](https://ciao-lang.org/playground/scasp.html), Potassco suit, _etc._ | |
39 | + - Software tools: [`s(casp)`](https://ciao-lang.org/playground/scasp.html), [Potassco suit](https://potassco.org/), _etc._ | |
40 | 40 | |
41 | 41 | ## References |
42 | 42 | |
... | ... | @@ -44,4 +44,4 @@ A team of two **(or three?)** researchers and a graduate student, working over s |
44 | 44 | 2. Andrew Cropper, Sebastijan Dumancic, Richard Evans, Stephen H. Muggleton, Inductive logic programming at 30 (2021) |
45 | 45 | 3. Fabio Gagliardi Cozman, Denis Deratani Mauá, The joy of Probabilistic Answer Set Programming: Semantics - complexity, expressivity, inference (2020) |
46 | 46 | 4. Fabrizio Riguzzi, Foundations of Probabilistic Logic Programming Languages, Semantics, Inference and Learning. Rivers Publishers (2018) |
47 | -6. Martin Gebser, Roland Kaminski, Benjamin Kaufmann, and Torsten Schaub, Answer Set Solving in Practice, Morgan & Claypool Publishers (2013) | |
48 | 47 | \ No newline at end of file |
48 | +6. Martin Gebser, Roland Kaminski, Benjamin Kaufmann, and Torsten Schaub, Answer Set Solving in Practice, Morgan & Claypool Publishers (2013) | ... | ... |
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text/00_PASP.nav
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text/00_PASP.pdf
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2 | -\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.b}{4} | |
3 | -\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.c}{4} | |
4 | -\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.d}{4} | |
5 | 1 | \beamer@slide {eq:prob.tc}{5} |
6 | -\beamer@slide {def:w.inconsistent}{9} | |
7 | -\beamer@slide {eq:prob.sm}{9} | |
8 | -\beamer@slide {def:w.disj}{9} | |
9 | -\beamer@slide {def:w.conj}{9} | |
10 | -\beamer@slide {def:w.empty}{9} | |
11 | -\beamer@slide {eq:def.prob}{9} | |
12 | -\beamer@slide {eq:def.prob.event}{9} | |
2 | +\beamer@slide {prop:unique.ext.tcsm}{7} | |
3 | +\beamer@slide {prop:lucases}{11} | |
4 | +\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.a}{11} | |
5 | +\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.b}{11} | |
6 | +\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.c}{11} | |
7 | +\beamer@slide {prop:lucases.d}{11} | |
8 | +\beamer@slide {def:w.inconsistent}{13} | |
9 | +\beamer@slide {eq:prob.sm}{13} | |
10 | +\beamer@slide {def:w.disj}{13} | |
11 | +\beamer@slide {def:w.conj}{13} | |
12 | +\beamer@slide {def:w.empty}{13} | |
13 | +\beamer@slide {eq:def.prob}{13} | |
14 | +\beamer@slide {eq:def.prob.event}{13} | ... | ... |
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text/00_PASP.tex
1 | 1 | \documentclass{beamer} |
2 | - | |
2 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
3 | +\usecolortheme{rose} | |
4 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
5 | +\useinnertheme{circles} | |
6 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
3 | 7 | \setbeamertemplate{navigation symbols}{} |
4 | -\setbeamertemplate{itemize items}[circle] | |
5 | - | |
6 | - | |
8 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
9 | +\AtBeginSection{ | |
10 | + \begin{frame}<beamer>\small | |
11 | + \tableofcontents[currentsection,subsectionstyle=shaded/shaded/hide] | |
12 | + \end{frame} | |
13 | +} | |
14 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
15 | +\AtBeginSubsection{ | |
16 | + \begin{frame}<beamer>\small | |
17 | + \tableofcontents[ | |
18 | + currentsection,sectionstyle=shaded/shaded, | |
19 | + currentsubsection,subsectionstyle=show/shaded/hide] | |
20 | + \end{frame} | |
21 | +} | |
22 | +%------------------------------------------ | |
7 | 23 | \usepackage[overridenote]{pdfpc} |
8 | 24 | |
9 | 25 | \usepackage{tikz} |
... | ... | @@ -28,142 +44,225 @@ |
28 | 44 | \newcommand{\deft}[1]{\textbf{#1}} |
29 | 45 | \newcommand{\pset}[1]{\ensuremath{\mathbb{P}\at{#1}}} |
30 | 46 | \newcommand{\ent}{\ensuremath{\lhd}} |
47 | +\newcommand{\cset}[2]{\ensuremath{\set{#1,~#2}}} | |
31 | 48 | \newcommand{\langof}[1]{\ensuremath{\fml{L}\at{#1}}} |
32 | 49 | \newcommand{\uset}[1]{\ensuremath{\left|{#1}\right>}} |
33 | 50 | \newcommand{\lset}[1]{\ensuremath{\left<{#1}\right|}} |
51 | +\newcommand{\pr}[1]{\ensuremath{\mathrm{p}\at{#1}}} | |
34 | 52 | % |
35 | 53 | % Identificação deste documento |
36 | 54 | % |
37 | 55 | \title{Zugzwang} |
38 | -\subtitle{Stochastic Adventures in Inductive Logic Specifications} | |
56 | +\subtitle{Stochastic Adventures in Inductive Logic} | |
39 | 57 | \author{Francisco Coelho} |
40 | 58 | \institute[\texttt{fc@uevora.pt}]{ |
41 | - Departamento de Informática\\ | |
42 | - Universidade de Évora | |
59 | + Departamento de Informática, Universidade de Évora\\ | |
60 | + High Performance Computing Chair\\ | |
61 | + NOVA-LINCS | |
43 | 62 | } |
44 | 63 | |
45 | 64 | \begin{document} |
46 | 65 | % |
47 | 66 | \begin{frame}[plain] |
48 | 67 | \titlepage |
49 | -\note{The goal of this text is to **explore how ASP specifications with probabilistic facts** can lead to characterizations of the **joint distributions** of the specification's atoms.} | |
50 | 68 | \end{frame} |
51 | 69 | |
52 | 70 | \section{Introduction} |
53 | 71 | |
54 | 72 | |
55 | 73 | \begin{frame}{Notation and Assumptions} |
56 | - \note{We start with **common notations and assumptions**.} | |
74 | + % -------------------------------- | |
57 | 75 | \begin{itemize} |
58 | - \item The \textbf{complement} of $x$ is $\co{x} = 1 - x$. | |
59 | - \item A \textbf{probabilistic atomic choice} $\alpha:a$ defines the disjunction $a \lor \neg a$ and assigns probabilities $P\at{a} = \alpha, P\at{\neg a} = \co{\alpha}$. | |
60 | - \item $\delta a$ denotes the \textbf{disjunction} $a \lor \neg a$ associated to the probabilistic choice $\alpha : a$ and $\delta\! \set{\alpha: a, a \in A} = \set{\delta a, a \in A}$ for any set of atoms $A$. | |
61 | - \item We adopt the the \textbf{closed world assumption}, where $\naf x \models \neg x$. | |
62 | - \item And also assume that \textbf{probabilistic choices} and \textbf{subgoals} are iid. | |
76 | + % -------------------------------- | |
77 | + \item $\co{x} = 1 - x$. | |
78 | + % -------------------------------- | |
79 | + \item \textbf{Probabilistic Atomic Choice (PAC):} $\alpha :: a$ defines $a \lor \neg a$ and probabilities $\pr{a} = \alpha, \pr{\neg a} = \co{\alpha}$. | |
80 | + % -------------------------------- | |
81 | + \item $\delta a$ denotes $a \lor \neg a$ and $\delta\! \set{\alpha :: a, a \in \fml{A}} = \set{\delta a, a \in \fml{A}}$ for a set of atoms $\fml{A}$. | |
82 | + % -------------------------------- | |
83 | + \item \textbf{Closed World Assumption:} $\naf x \models \neg x$. | |
84 | + % -------------------------------- | |
85 | + % \item Probabilistic choices and sub-goals are independent. | |
86 | + % -------------------------------- | |
63 | 87 | \end{itemize} |
64 | - \note{**Subgoals are IID** means that ???} | |
88 | + % -------------------------------- | |
65 | 89 | \end{frame} |
66 | - | |
90 | +% ================================================================ | |
67 | 91 | \begin{frame}{General Setting} |
68 | - \note{Next, we consider the following **general setting**} | |
69 | - Let $\fml{A}$ be a set of \textbf{atoms}, $\overline{\fml{A}} = \set{\neg a \middle| a \in \fml{A}}$ and $\fml{Z}$ the respective set of \textbf{observations}, | |
70 | - $$\fml{Z} = \set{z = \alpha \cup \beta \middle| \alpha \subseteq \fml{A} \land \beta \subseteq \overline{\fml{A}} }$$ and $\fml{I}$ the set of consistent observations or \textbf{interpretations}, $$\fml{I} = \set{z \in \fml{Z} \middle| \forall a \in \fml{A}~\abs{ \set{a, \neg a} \cap z} \leq 1}.$$ | |
92 | + % -------------------------------- | |
71 | 93 | \begin{itemize} |
72 | - \item A \textbf{PASP program} is $P = C \land F \land R$ where | |
73 | - | |
74 | - \begin{itemize} | |
75 | - \item $C = C_P = \set{\alpha_i : a_i \middle| i = 1:n}$ is a set of probabilistic atomic choices, | |
76 | - | |
77 | - \item $F = F_P$ is a set of (common) facts and | |
78 | - | |
79 | - \item $R = R_P$ is a set of (common) rules. | |
80 | - \end{itemize} | |
81 | - | |
82 | - and the sets of atoms, observations and interpretations of program $P$ are denoted $\fml{A}_P, \fml{Z}_P$ and $\fml{I}_P$ | |
94 | + % -------------------------------- | |
95 | + \item \textbf{Atoms} $\fml{A}$, | |
96 | + $\overline{\fml{A}} = \cset{\neg a}{a \in \fml{A}}$, | |
97 | + % -------------------------------- | |
98 | + \item \textbf{Observations} $\fml{Z}$: | |
99 | + $$\fml{Z} = \cset{z = \alpha \cup \beta }{ \alpha \subseteq \fml{A} \land \beta \subseteq \overline{\fml{A}} }$$ | |
100 | + % -------------------------------- | |
101 | + \item \textbf{Interpretations} or \textit{consistent observations} $\fml{I}$ : | |
102 | + $$\fml{I} = \cset{z \in \fml{Z} }{ \forall a \in \fml{A}~\envert{\set{a,\neg a} \cap z} \leq 1}.$$ | |
103 | + % -------------------------------- | |
104 | + \item \textit{PASP Problem} or \textbf{Specification:} $P = C \land F \land R$ where | |
105 | + % -------------------------------- | |
106 | + \begin{itemize} | |
107 | + % -------------------------------- | |
108 | + \item $C = C_P = \cset{\alpha_i :: a_i }{ i \in 1:n \land a_i \in \fml{A}}$ \textit{pacs}. | |
109 | + % -------------------------------- | |
110 | + \item $F = F_P$ \textit{facts}. | |
111 | + % -------------------------------- | |
112 | + \item $R = R_P$ \textit{rules}. | |
113 | + % -------------------------------- | |
114 | + \item $\fml{A}_P, \fml{Z}_P$ and $\fml{I}_P$: \textit{atoms}, \textit{observations} and \textit{interpretations} of $P$. | |
115 | + \end{itemize} | |
116 | + % -------------------------------- | |
117 | + \item \textbf{Stable Models} of $P$, $\fml{S} = \fml{S}_P$, are the stable models of $\delta P = \delta C + F + R$. | |
118 | + % -------------------------------- | |
119 | + \end{itemize} | |
120 | + % -------------------------------- | |
121 | +\end{frame} | |
122 | +% ================================================================ | |
123 | +\begin{frame}{Distribution Semantics} | |
124 | + % -------------------------------- | |
125 | + \begin{itemize} | |
126 | + % -------------------------------- | |
127 | + \item \textbf{Total Choices:} $\Theta = \Theta_C = \Theta_P$ elements are $\theta = \set{c_1, \ldots, c_n}$ where $c_i$ is $a_i$ or $\neg a_i$. | |
128 | + % -------------------------------- | |
129 | + %\item For $s\in\fml{S}$ let $\theta_s \subseteq s$ (unique \textit{total choice}) | |
130 | + %\item Define $\fml{S}_\theta = \cset{s \in \fml{S}}{\theta \subset s}$. | |
131 | + % -------------------------------- | |
83 | 132 | |
84 | - \item The \textbf{stable models} of $P$ are the stable models of $\delta P = \delta C + F + R$ and the respective set is denoted $\fml{S} = \fml{S}_P$. | |
133 | + % -------------------------------- | |
134 | + \item \textbf{Total Choice Probability:} | |
135 | + \begin{equation} | |
136 | + \pr{\theta} = \prod_{a_i \in \theta}\alpha_i \prod_{\neg a_i \in \theta}\co{\alpha_i}.\label{eq:prob.tc} | |
137 | + \end{equation} | |
138 | + % -------------------------------- | |
85 | 139 | \end{itemize} |
140 | + % -------------------------------- | |
141 | + \begin{quote} | |
142 | + This is the \emph{Distribution Semantics} as set by Sato. | |
143 | + \end{quote} | |
86 | 144 | \end{frame} |
87 | - | |
88 | -\begin{frame} | |
89 | - \note{A model x has lower and upper "bounds".} | |
145 | +% ================================================================ | |
146 | +\begin{frame}{Problem Statement} | |
147 | + % -------------------------------- | |
148 | + \begin{quotation} | |
149 | + How to extend probability from the total choices to interpretations and observations? | |
150 | + \end{quotation} | |
151 | + % -------------------------------- | |
152 | + \begin{itemize} | |
153 | + % -------------------------------- | |
154 | + \item \textbf{Todo:} Extend probability to \textit{stable models}, \textit{interpretations} and \textit{observations}. | |
155 | + % -------------------------------- | |
156 | + \end{itemize} | |
157 | + % -------------------------------- | |
158 | + \begin{quotation} | |
159 | + \textbf{But} there is a problem extending probability from total choices to stable models. | |
160 | + \end{quotation} | |
161 | + % -------------------------------- | |
162 | +\end{frame} | |
163 | +% ================================================================ | |
164 | +\begin{frame}{The Disjunction Case} | |
165 | + % -------------------------------- | |
166 | + \begin{exampleblock}{Disjuntion Example} | |
167 | + The specification | |
168 | + % -------------------------------- | |
169 | + $$ | |
170 | + \begin{aligned} | |
171 | + 0.3 :: a &, \cr | |
172 | + b \lor c &\larr a . | |
173 | + \end{aligned} | |
174 | + $$ | |
175 | + % -------------------------------- | |
176 | + has three stable models, | |
177 | + % -------------------------------- | |
178 | + $$ | |
179 | + \begin{aligned} | |
180 | + s_1 &= \set{\neg a}, & s_2 &= \set{a, b}, & s_3 &= \set{a, c}. | |
181 | + \end{aligned} | |
182 | + $$ | |
183 | + \end{exampleblock} | |
184 | + % -------------------------------- | |
185 | + \begin{itemize} | |
186 | + % -------------------------------- | |
187 | + \item\label{prop:unique.ext.tcsm}\textit{Any stable model contains exactly one total choice.~$\blacksquare$} | |
188 | + % -------------------------------- | |
189 | + \item $\pr{\set{\neg a}} = 0.7$ is straightforward. | |
190 | + % -------------------------------- | |
191 | + \item But, no \textit{unbiased} choice for $\alpha\in\intcc{0,1}$ in | |
192 | + $$ | |
193 | + \begin{aligned} | |
194 | + \pr{\set{a, b}} &= 0.3 \alpha, \cr | |
195 | + \pr{\set{a, c}} &= 0.3 \co{\alpha}. | |
196 | + \end{aligned} | |
197 | + $$ | |
198 | + % -------------------------------- | |
199 | + \end{itemize} | |
200 | + % -------------------------------- | |
201 | +\end{frame} | |
202 | +% ================================================================ | |
203 | +\section{Motivation} | |
204 | +% ================================================================ | |
205 | +\begin{frame}{Specification, Data \& Evaluation} | |
206 | + % -------------------------------- | |
207 | + Given some procedure to assign probabilities to observations from specifications and: | |
208 | + % -------------------------------- | |
209 | + \begin{itemize} | |
210 | + % -------------------------------- | |
211 | + \item $P$, a specification. | |
212 | + % -------------------------------- | |
213 | + \item $p$, the distribution of observations from above. | |
214 | + % -------------------------------- | |
215 | + \item $Z$, a dataset of observations. | |
216 | + % -------------------------------- | |
217 | + \item $e$, the respective empirical distribution. | |
218 | + % -------------------------------- | |
219 | + \item $D$, some probability divergence, \textit{e.g.} Kullback-Leibler. | |
220 | + % -------------------------------- | |
221 | + \end{itemize} | |
222 | + % -------------------------------- | |
223 | + Given a dataset $Z$, $D\at{P} = D\at{e, p}$ is a \textit{performance} measure of $P$ and can be used, \textit{e.g.} fitness, by algorithms searching for optimal specifications of a dataset. | |
224 | + % -------------------------------- | |
225 | +\end{frame} | |
226 | +% ================================================================ | |
227 | +\section{Resolution} | |
228 | +% ================================================================ | |
229 | +\begin{frame}{Bounds of Interpretations} | |
230 | + % -------------------------------- | |
90 | 231 | \begin{itemize} |
91 | - \item \textbf{Proposition.} Let $x\in\fml{I}$ be an interpretation. | |
232 | + % -------------------------------- | |
233 | + \item For $x\in\fml{I}$: | |
234 | + % -------------------------------- | |
92 | 235 | \begin{itemize} |
93 | - \item[Lower Models] $\lset{x} = \set{s\in \fml{S} \middle| s \subseteq x}$. | |
94 | - | |
95 | - \item[Upper Models] $\uset{x} = \set{s\in \fml{S} \middle| x \subseteq s}$. | |
236 | + % -------------------------------- | |
237 | + \item \textbf{Lower Models:} $\lset{x} = \cset{s\in \fml{S} }{ s \subseteq x}$. | |
238 | + % -------------------------------- | |
239 | + \item \textbf{Upper Models:} $\uset{x} = \cset{s\in \fml{S} }{ x \subseteq s}$. | |
240 | + % -------------------------------- | |
96 | 241 | \end{itemize} |
97 | - \note{If $a$ is a lower model and $b$ an upper model, since stable models are minimal, must be $a = b = x$.} | |
98 | - | |
99 | - \item Exactly one of the following cases takes place: | |
242 | + % -------------------------------- | |
243 | + \item\label{prop:lucases} \textbf{Proposition.} Stable models are \textit{minimal} so \textit{one} of the following cases takes place: | |
244 | + % -------------------------------- | |
100 | 245 | \begin{enumerate} |
101 | - % | |
246 | + % -------------------------------- | |
102 | 247 | \item\label{prop:lucases.a} $\lset{x} = \set{x} = \uset{x}$ and $x$ is a stable model. |
103 | - % | |
248 | + % -------------------------------- | |
104 | 249 | \item\label{prop:lucases.b} $\lset{x} \neq \emptyset \land \uset{x} = \emptyset$. |
105 | - % | |
250 | + % -------------------------------- | |
106 | 251 | \item\label{prop:lucases.c} $\lset{x} = \emptyset \land \uset{x} \neq \emptyset$. |
107 | - % | |
252 | + % -------------------------------- | |
108 | 253 | \item\label{prop:lucases.d} $\lset{x} = \emptyset = \uset{x}$. |
254 | + % -------------------------------- | |
109 | 255 | \end{enumerate} |
256 | + % -------------------------------- | |
110 | 257 | \end{itemize} |
258 | + % -------------------------------- | |
111 | 259 | \end{frame} |
112 | - | |
113 | -\begin{frame} | |
114 | - \note{Total choice are key to define probability of a clause.} | |
115 | - \begin{itemize} | |
116 | - \item The probabilistic facts $C$ define a set $\Theta = \Theta_C$ of \textbf{total choices}, with $2^n$ elements, each one a set $\theta = \set{c_1, \ldots, c_n}$ where $c_i$ is either $a_i$ or $\neg a_i$. | |
117 | - | |
118 | - \item For each stable model $s\in\fml{S}$ let $\theta_s$ be the unique \textbf{total choice} contained in $s$ and $\fml{S}_\theta \subseteq \fml{S}$ the set of stable models that contains $\theta$. | |
119 | - | |
120 | - \item Define | |
121 | - \begin{equation} | |
122 | - p\at{\theta} = \prod_{a_i \in \theta}\alpha_i \prod_{\neg a_i \in \theta}\co{\alpha_i}.\label{eq:prob.tc} | |
123 | - \end{equation} | |
124 | - \end{itemize} | |
125 | -\end{frame} | |
126 | - | |
127 | - | |
128 | -\begin{frame} | |
129 | - \note{Relate stable models with Sato's probabilistic semantics} | |
130 | - \begin{quotation} | |
131 | - The problem we address is how to \textbf{assign probabilities to observations} given that a total choice might entail zero or many stable models \emph{i.e.} How to assign probabilities to the stable models of $\fml{S}_\theta$ when $\envert{\fml{S}_\theta} \not= 1$? | |
132 | - \end{quotation} | |
133 | -\end{frame} | |
134 | - | |
135 | -\begin{frame} | |
136 | - \note{There are some problems} | |
137 | - | |
138 | - As it turns out, it is quite easy to come out with a program from which result no single probability distribution. For example | |
139 | - $$ | |
140 | - \begin{aligned} | |
141 | - 0.3:a,& \cr | |
142 | - b \lor c \larr& a. | |
143 | - \end{aligned} | |
144 | - $$ | |
145 | - has three stable models | |
146 | - $$ | |
147 | - \begin{aligned} | |
148 | - s_1 &= \set{\neg a} \cr | |
149 | - s_2 &= \set{a, b} \cr | |
150 | - s_3 &= \set{a, c} | |
151 | - \end{aligned} | |
152 | - $$ | |
153 | - and while $p\at{\set{\neg a}} = 0.7$ is quite natural, we have no further information to support the choice of a singular $\alpha\in\intcc{0,1}$ in the assignment | |
154 | - $$ | |
155 | - \begin{aligned} | |
156 | - p\at{\set{a, b}} &= 0.3 \alpha \cr | |
157 | - p\at{\set{a, c}} &= 0.3 \co{\alpha} | |
158 | - \end{aligned} | |
159 | - $$ | |
160 | -\end{frame} | |
161 | - | |
260 | +% ================================================================ | |
162 | 261 | \begin{frame} |
163 | 262 | |
164 | - Next we try to formalize the possible configurations of this scenario. Consider the ASP program $P = C \land F \land R$ with total choices $\Theta $ and stable models $\fml{S}$. Let $d : \fml{S} \to \intcc{0,1}$ such that $\sum_{s\in\fml{S}_\theta} d\at{s} = 1$. | |
263 | + Next we try to formalize the possible configurations of this scenario. Consider the ASP program $P = C \land F \land R$ with total choices $\Theta $ and stable models $\fml{S}$. Let $d :: \fml{S} \to \intcc{0,1}$ such that $\sum_{s\in\fml{S}_\theta} d\at{s} = 1$. | |
165 | 264 | \end{frame} |
166 | - | |
265 | +% ================================================================ | |
167 | 266 | \begin{frame} |
168 | 267 | |
169 | 268 | \begin{enumerate} |
... | ... | @@ -176,7 +275,7 @@ |
176 | 275 | % |
177 | 276 | \item $z$ is an interpretation and $\lset{z} = \set{z} = \uset{x}$. Then $z = s$ is a stable model and \textbf{define} |
178 | 277 | \begin{equation} |
179 | - w_d\at{z} = w\at{s} = d\at{s} p\at{\theta_s}.\label{eq:prob.sm} | |
278 | + w_d\at{z} = w\at{s} = d\at{s} \pr{\theta_s}.\label{eq:prob.sm} | |
180 | 279 | \end{equation} |
181 | 280 | % |
182 | 281 | \item $z$ is an interpretation and $\lset{z} \neq \emptyset \land \uset{x} = \emptyset$. Then \textbf{define} |
... | ... | @@ -197,36 +296,36 @@ |
197 | 296 | % |
198 | 297 | \item The last point defines a ``weight'' function on the observations that depends not only on the total choices and stable models of a PASP but also on a certain function $d$ that must respect some conditions. To simplify the notation we use the subscript in $w_d$ only when necessary. |
199 | 298 | % |
200 | - \item At first, it may seem counter-intuitive that $w\at{\emptyset} = \sum_{s\in\fml{S}} w\at{s}$ is the largest ``weight'' in the lattice. But $\emptyset$, as an interpretation, sets zero restrictions on the ``compatible'' stable models. The ``complement'' of $\bot = \emptyset$ is the \emph{maximal inconsistent} observation $\top = \fml{A} \cup \set{\neg a \middle| a \in \fml{A}}$. | |
299 | + \item At first, it may seem counter-intuitive that $w\at{\emptyset} = \sum_{s\in\fml{S}} w\at{s}$ is the largest ``weight'' in the lattice. But $\emptyset$, as an interpretation, sets zero restrictions on the ``compatible'' stable models. The ``complement'' of $\bot = \emptyset$ is the \emph{maximal inconsistent} observation $\top = \fml{A} \cup \cset{\neg a }{ a \in \fml{A}}$. | |
201 | 300 | % |
202 | 301 | \item \textbf{We haven't yet defined a probability measure.} To do so we must define a set of samples $\Omega$, a set of events $F\subseteq \pset{\Omega}$ and a function $P:F\to\intcc{0,1}$ such that: |
203 | 302 | \begin{enumerate} |
204 | - \item $P\at{E} \in \intcc{0, 1}$ for any $E \in F$. | |
205 | - \item $P\at{\Omega} = 1$. | |
206 | - \item if $E_1 \cap E_2 = \emptyset$ then $P\at{E_1 \cup E_2} = P\at{E_1} + P\at{E_2}$. | |
303 | + \item $\pr{E} \in \intcc{0, 1}$ for any $E \in F$. | |
304 | + \item $\pr{\Omega} = 1$. | |
305 | + \item if $E_1 \cap E_2 = \emptyset$ then $\pr{E_1 \cup E_2} = \pr{E_1} + \pr{E_2}$. | |
207 | 306 | \end{enumerate} |
208 | 307 | % |
209 | 308 | \item In the following, assume that the stable models are iid. |
210 | 309 | % |
211 | 310 | \item Let the sample space $\Omega = \fml{Z}$ and the event space $F = \pset{\Omega}$. Define $Z = \sum_{\zeta\in\fml{Z}} w\at{\zeta}$ and |
212 | 311 | \begin{equation} |
213 | - P\at{z} = \frac{w\at{z}}{Z}, z \in \Omega \label{eq:def.prob} | |
312 | + \pr{z} = \frac{w\at{z}}{Z}, z \in \Omega \label{eq:def.prob} | |
214 | 313 | \end{equation} |
215 | 314 | and |
216 | 315 | \begin{equation} |
217 | - P\at{E} = \sum_{x\in E} P\at{x}, E \subseteq \Omega. \label{eq:def.prob.event} | |
316 | + \pr{E} = \sum_{x\in E} \pr{x}, E \subseteq \Omega. \label{eq:def.prob.event} | |
218 | 317 | \end{equation} |
219 | 318 | Now: |
220 | 319 | \begin{enumerate} |
221 | 320 | \item $P(E) \in \intcc{0,1}$ results directly from the definitions of $P$ and $w$. |
222 | - \item $P\at{\Omega} = 1$ also results directly from the definitions. | |
321 | + \item $\pr{\Omega} = 1$ also results directly from the definitions. | |
223 | 322 | \item Consider two disjunct events $A, B \subset \Omega \land A \cap B = \emptyset$. Then |
224 | 323 | $$ |
225 | 324 | \begin{aligned} |
226 | - P\at{A \cup B} &= \sum_{x \in A \cup B} P\at{x} \cr | |
227 | - &= \sum_{x \in A} P\at{x} + \sum_{x \in B} P\at{x} - \sum_{x \in A \cap B} P\at{x} \cr | |
228 | - &= \sum_{x \in A} P\at{x} + \sum_{x \in B} P\at{x} &\text{because}~A\cap B = \emptyset \cr | |
229 | - &= P\at{A} + P\at{B}. | |
325 | + \pr{A \cup B} &= \sum_{x \in A \cup B} \pr{x} \cr | |
326 | + &= \sum_{x \in A} \pr{x} + \sum_{x \in B} \pr{x} - \sum_{x \in A \cap B} \pr{x} \cr | |
327 | + &= \sum_{x \in A} \pr{x} + \sum_{x \in B} \pr{x} &\text{because}~A\cap B = \emptyset \cr | |
328 | + &= \pr{A} + \pr{B}. | |
230 | 329 | \end{aligned} |
231 | 330 | $$ |
232 | 331 | \item So $\del{\Omega = \fml{Z}, F = \pset{\Omega}, P}$ is a probability space. {$\blacksquare$} |
... | ... | @@ -234,10 +333,11 @@ |
234 | 333 | \end{enumerate} |
235 | 334 | |
236 | 335 | \end{frame} |
237 | - | |
336 | +% ================================================================ | |
238 | 337 | \section{Cases \& Examples} |
338 | +% ================================================================ | |
239 | 339 | \subsection{Programs with disjunctive heads} |
240 | - | |
340 | +% ================================================================ | |
241 | 341 | \begin{frame} |
242 | 342 | |
243 | 343 | Consider the program: |
... | ... | @@ -263,10 +363,9 @@ |
263 | 363 | \end{aligned} |
264 | 364 | $$ |
265 | 365 | \end{frame} |
266 | - | |
267 | - | |
366 | +% ================================================================ | |
268 | 367 | \begin{frame} |
269 | - Suppose that we add an annotation $\alpha:a$, which entails $\co{\alpha}:\neg a$. This is enough to get $w\at{s_1} = \co{\alpha}$ but, on the absence of further information, no fixed probability can be assigned to either model $s_2, s_3$ except that the respective sum must be $\alpha$. So, expressing our lack of knowledge using a parameter $d \in \intcc{0, 1}$ we get: | |
368 | + Suppose that we add an annotation $\alpha :: a$, which entails $\co{\alpha} :: \neg a$. This is enough to get $w\at{s_1} = \co{\alpha}$ but, on the absence of further information, no fixed probability can be assigned to either model $s_2, s_3$ except that the respective sum must be $\alpha$. So, expressing our lack of knowledge using a parameter $d \in \intcc{0, 1}$ we get: | |
270 | 369 | $$ |
271 | 370 | \begin{cases} |
272 | 371 | w\at{s_1 } = &\co{\alpha}\cr |
... | ... | @@ -275,7 +374,7 @@ |
275 | 374 | \end{cases} |
276 | 375 | $$ |
277 | 376 | \end{frame} |
278 | - | |
377 | +% ================================================================ | |
279 | 378 | \begin{frame} |
280 | 379 | |
281 | 380 | Now consider all the interpretations for this program: |
... | ... | @@ -285,11 +384,11 @@ |
285 | 384 | % |
286 | 385 | \node [draw, circle] (E) at (5.5,0) {$\emptyset$}; |
287 | 386 | % |
288 | - \node [draw, circle] (a) at (2,2) {$a$}; | |
289 | - \node [draw, circle] (b) at (3,2) {$b$}; | |
387 | + \node [draw, circle] (a) at (3,2) {$a$}; | |
388 | + \node [draw, circle] (b) at (2,2) {$b$}; | |
290 | 389 | \node [draw, circle] (c) at (4,2) {$c$}; |
291 | - \node [fill=gray!50] (A) at (9,2) {$\co{a}$}; | |
292 | - \node (B) at (8,2) {$\co{b}$}; | |
390 | + \node [fill=gray!50] (A) at (8,2) {$\co{a}$}; | |
391 | + \node (B) at (9,2) {$\co{b}$}; | |
293 | 392 | \node (C) at (7,2) {$\co{c}$}; |
294 | 393 | % |
295 | 394 | \node [fill=gray!50] (ab) at (0,4) {$ab$}; |
... | ... | @@ -338,7 +437,7 @@ |
338 | 437 | \end{tikzpicture} |
339 | 438 | \end{center} |
340 | 439 | \end{frame} |
341 | - | |
440 | +% ================================================================ | |
342 | 441 | \begin{frame} |
343 | 442 | |
344 | 443 | In this diagram: |
... | ... | @@ -378,7 +477,7 @@ |
378 | 477 | $$ |
379 | 478 | \item Now some statistics are possible. For example we get |
380 | 479 | $$ |
381 | - P\at{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} = \frac{0.09 d \left(d - 1\right)}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9} | |
480 | + \pr{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} = \frac{0.09 d \left(d - 1\right)}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9} | |
382 | 481 | $$. |
383 | 482 | |
384 | 483 | \item This expression can be plotted for $d\in\intcc{0,1}$ |
... | ... | @@ -386,10 +485,10 @@ |
386 | 485 | \includegraphics[height=15em]{Pabc_alpha03.pdf} |
387 | 486 | \end{center} |
388 | 487 | |
389 | - \item If a data set $E$ entails \emph{e.g.} $P\at{abc \mid E} = 0.0015$ we can numerically solve | |
488 | + \item If a data set $E$ entails \emph{e.g.} $\pr{abc \mid E} = 0.0015$ we can numerically solve | |
390 | 489 | $$ |
391 | 490 | \begin{aligned} |
392 | - P\at{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} &= P\at{abc \mid E} \cr | |
491 | + \pr{abc \mid \alpha = 0.3} &= \pr{abc \mid E} \cr | |
393 | 492 | \iff\cr |
394 | 493 | \frac{0.09 d \del{d - 1}}{0.09 d^{2} - 0.69 d - 7.9} &= 0.0015 |
395 | 494 | \end{aligned} |
... | ... | @@ -397,10 +496,9 @@ |
397 | 496 | which has two solutions, $d \approx 0.15861$ or $d \approx 0.83138$. |
398 | 497 | \end{itemize} |
399 | 498 | \end{frame} |
400 | - | |
499 | +% ================================================================ | |
401 | 500 | \subsection{Non-stratified programs} |
402 | - | |
403 | - | |
501 | +% ================================================================ | |
404 | 502 | \begin{frame} |
405 | 503 | The following LP is non-stratified, because has a cycle with negated arcs: |
406 | 504 | $$ |
... | ... | @@ -429,13 +527,13 @@ |
429 | 527 | }. |
430 | 528 | $$ |
431 | 529 | \end{frame} |
432 | - | |
530 | +% ================================================================ | |
433 | 531 | \begin{frame} |
434 | 532 | |
435 | - Looking into probabilistic interpretations of the program and/or its models, we define $\alpha = P\at{\Theta = \theta_1}\in\intcc{0, 1}$ and $P\at{\Theta = \theta_2} = \co{\alpha}$. | |
533 | + Looking into probabilistic interpretations of the program and/or its models, we define $\alpha = \pr{\Theta = \theta_1}\in\intcc{0, 1}$ and $\pr{\Theta = \theta_2} = \co{\alpha}$. | |
436 | 534 | |
437 | - Since $s_1$ is the only stable model that results from $\Theta = \theta_1$, it is natural to extend $P\at{ s_1 } = P\at{\Theta = \theta_1} = \alpha$. However, there is no clear way to assign $P\at{s_2}, P\at{s_3}$ since \emph{both models result from the single total choice} $\Theta = \theta_2$. Clearly, | |
438 | - $$P\at{s_2 \mid \Theta} + P\at{s_3 \mid \Theta} = | |
535 | + Since $s_1$ is the only stable model that results from $\Theta = \theta_1$, it is natural to extend $\pr{ s_1 } = \pr{\Theta = \theta_1} = \alpha$. However, there is no clear way to assign $\pr{s_2}, \pr{s_3}$ since \emph{both models result from the single total choice} $\Theta = \theta_2$. Clearly, | |
536 | + $$\pr{s_2 \mid \Theta} + \pr{s_3 \mid \Theta} = | |
439 | 537 | \begin{cases} |
440 | 538 | 0 & \text{if}~\Theta = \theta_1\cr |
441 | 539 | 1 & \text{if}~\Theta = \theta_2 |
... | ... | @@ -444,16 +542,15 @@ |
444 | 542 | but further assumptions are not supported \emph{a priori}. So let's \textbf{parameterize} the equation above, |
445 | 543 | $$ |
446 | 544 | \begin{cases} |
447 | - P\at{s_2 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\beta \in \intcc{0, 1} \cr | |
448 | - P\at{s_3 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\co{\beta}, | |
545 | + \pr{s_2 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\beta \in \intcc{0, 1} \cr | |
546 | + \pr{s_3 \mid \Theta = \theta_2} = &\co{\beta}, | |
449 | 547 | \end{cases} |
450 | 548 | $$ |
451 | 549 | in order to explicit our knowledge, or lack of, with numeric values and relations. |
452 | 550 | \end{frame} |
453 | - | |
454 | - | |
551 | +% ================================================================ | |
455 | 552 | \begin{frame} |
456 | - Now we are able to define the \textbf{joint distribution} of the boolean random variables $A,B,C$, : | |
553 | + Now we are able to define the \textbf{joint distribution} of the boolean random variables $A,B,C$: | |
457 | 554 | |
458 | 555 | $$ |
459 | 556 | \begin{array}{cc|l} |
... | ... | @@ -467,10 +564,9 @@ |
467 | 564 | $$ |
468 | 565 | where $\alpha, \beta\in\intcc{0,1}$. |
469 | 566 | \end{frame} |
470 | - | |
567 | +% ================================================================ | |
471 | 568 | \section{Conclusions} |
472 | - | |
473 | - | |
569 | +% ================================================================ | |
474 | 570 | \begin{frame} |
475 | 571 | \begin{itemize} |
476 | 572 | \item We can use the basics of probability theory and logic programming to assign explicit \emph{parameterized} probabilities to the (stable) models of a program. |
... | ... | @@ -479,10 +575,9 @@ |
479 | 575 | \item However, it is non-restrictive since \emph{no unusual assumptions are made}. |
480 | 576 | \end{itemize} |
481 | 577 | \end{frame} |
482 | - | |
578 | +% ================================================================ | |
483 | 579 | \section*{ASP \& related definitions} |
484 | - | |
485 | - | |
580 | +% ================================================================ | |
486 | 581 | \begin{frame} |
487 | 582 | |
488 | 583 | \begin{itemize} |
... | ... | @@ -536,4 +631,5 @@ |
536 | 631 | \end{itemize} |
537 | 632 | \end{itemize} |
538 | 633 | \end{frame} |
634 | +% ================================================================ | |
539 | 635 | \end{document} |
540 | 636 | \ No newline at end of file | ... | ... |
text/00_PASP.toc
1 | 1 | \beamer@sectionintoc {1}{Introduction}{2}{0}{1} |
2 | -\beamer@sectionintoc {2}{Cases \& Examples}{10}{0}{2} | |
3 | -\beamer@subsectionintoc {2}{1}{Programs with disjunctive heads}{10}{0}{2} | |
4 | -\beamer@subsectionintoc {2}{2}{Non-stratified programs}{14}{0}{2} | |
5 | -\beamer@sectionintoc {3}{Conclusions}{18}{0}{3} | |
2 | +\beamer@sectionintoc {2}{Motivation}{8}{0}{2} | |
3 | +\beamer@sectionintoc {3}{Resolution}{10}{0}{3} | |
4 | +\beamer@sectionintoc {4}{Cases \& Examples}{14}{0}{4} | |
5 | +\beamer@subsectionintoc {4}{1}{Programs with disjunctive heads}{15}{0}{4} | |
6 | +\beamer@subsectionintoc {4}{2}{Non-stratified programs}{20}{0}{4} | |
7 | +\beamer@sectionintoc {5}{Conclusions}{25}{0}{5} | ... | ... |
text/00_PASP.xdv
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