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@@ -129,10 +129,10 @@ citecolor=blue, | @@ -129,10 +129,10 @@ citecolor=blue, | ||
129 | \Acf{ASP} is a logic programming paradigm based on the \ac{SM} semantics of \acp{NP} that can be implemented using the latest advances in SAT solving technology. Unlike ProLog, \ac{ASP} is a truly declarative language that supports language constructs such as disjunction in the head of a clause, choice rules, and hard and weak constraints. | 129 | \Acf{ASP} is a logic programming paradigm based on the \ac{SM} semantics of \acp{NP} that can be implemented using the latest advances in SAT solving technology. Unlike ProLog, \ac{ASP} is a truly declarative language that supports language constructs such as disjunction in the head of a clause, choice rules, and hard and weak constraints. |
130 | 130 | ||
131 | \todo{references} | 131 | \todo{references} |
132 | -The \ac{DS} is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. \Acp{PF} are the most basic \ac{DS} stochastic primitives and take the form of logical facts, $a$, labelled with probabilities, $p$, such as $\probfact{p}{a}$; Each \ac{PF} represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $\co{p} = 1 - p$. A (consistent) combination of the \acp{PF} defines a \acf{TC} $c = \set{\probfact{p}{a}, \ldots}$ such that | 132 | +The \ac{DS} is a key approach to extend logical representations with probabilistic reasoning. \Acp{PF} are the most basic \ac{DS} stochastic primitives and take the form of logical facts, $a$, labelled with probabilities, $p$, such as $\probfact{p}{a}$; Each \ac{PF} represents a boolean random variable that is true with probability $p$ and false with probability $\co{p} = 1 - p$. A (consistent) combination of the \acp{PF} defines a \acf{TC} $t = \set{\probfact{p}{a}, \ldots}$ such that \franc{changed \acl{TC} $c$ to $t$ everywhere.} |
133 | 133 | ||
134 | \begin{equation} | 134 | \begin{equation} |
135 | - \pr{C = c} = \prod_{a\in c} p \prod_{a \not\in c} \co{p}. | 135 | + \pr{T = t} = \prod_{a\in t} p \prod_{a \not\in t} \co{p}. |
136 | \label{eq:prob.total.choice} | 136 | \label{eq:prob.total.choice} |
137 | \end{equation} | 137 | \end{equation} |
138 | 138 | ||
@@ -379,7 +379,7 @@ The diagram in \cref{fig:running.example} illustrates the problem of extending p | @@ -379,7 +379,7 @@ The diagram in \cref{fig:running.example} illustrates the problem of extending p | ||
379 | 379 | ||
380 | Given an ASP specification, | 380 | Given an ASP specification, |
381 | \remark{{\bruno Introduce also the sets mentioned below}}{how?} | 381 | \remark{{\bruno Introduce also the sets mentioned below}}{how?} |
382 | - we consider the \emph{atoms} $a \in \fml{A}$ and \emph{literals}, $z \in \fml{L}$, \emph{events} $e \in \fml{E} \iff e \subseteq \fml{L}$ and \emph{worlds} $w \in \fml{W}$ (consistent events), \emph{\aclp{TC} } $c \in \fml{C} \iff c = a \vee \neg a$ and \emph{\aclp{SM} } $s \in \fml{S}\subset\fml{W}$. | 382 | + we consider the \emph{atoms} $a \in \fml{A}$ and \emph{literals}, $z \in \fml{L}$, \emph{events} $e \in \fml{E} \iff e \subseteq \fml{L}$ and \emph{worlds} $w \in \fml{W}$ (consistent events), \emph{\aclp{TC} } $t \in \fml{T} \iff t = a \vee \neg a$ and \emph{\aclp{SM} } $s \in \fml{S}\subset\fml{W}$. |
383 | 383 | ||
384 | Our path starts with a perspective of \aclp{SM} as playing a role similar to \emph{prime} factors. The \aclp{SM} of a specification are the irreducible events entailed from that specification and any event must be \replace{interpreted}{considered} under its relation with the \aclp{SM}. | 384 | Our path starts with a perspective of \aclp{SM} as playing a role similar to \emph{prime} factors. The \aclp{SM} of a specification are the irreducible events entailed from that specification and any event must be \replace{interpreted}{considered} under its relation with the \aclp{SM}. |
385 | 385 | ||
@@ -515,48 +515,48 @@ where $\indepclass$ denotes both the class of \emph{independent} events $e$ such | @@ -515,48 +515,48 @@ where $\indepclass$ denotes both the class of \emph{independent} events $e$ such | ||
515 | \item Normalization of the weights. | 515 | \item Normalization of the weights. |
516 | \end{enumerate} | 516 | \end{enumerate} |
517 | 517 | ||
518 | -The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ref{eq:weight.tchoice} --- \ref{eq:weight.events}), starts with the weight (probability) of \aclp{TC}, $\pw{c} = \pr{C = c}$, expands it to \aclp{SM}, $\pw{s}$, and then, within the equivalence relation from \cref{eq:equiv.rel}, to (general) events, $\pw{e}$, including (consistent) worlds. | 518 | +The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ref{eq:weight.tchoice} --- \ref{eq:weight.events}), starts with the weight (probability) of \aclp{TC}, $\pw{t} = \pr{T = t}$, expands it to \aclp{SM}, $\pw{s}$, and then, within the equivalence relation from \cref{eq:equiv.rel}, to (general) events, $\pw{e}$, including (consistent) worlds. |
519 | 519 | ||
520 | \begin{description} | 520 | \begin{description} |
521 | % | 521 | % |
522 | \item[Total Choices.] Using \eqref{eq:prob.total.choice}, this case is given by | 522 | \item[Total Choices.] Using \eqref{eq:prob.total.choice}, this case is given by |
523 | \begin{equation} | 523 | \begin{equation} |
524 | - \pw{c} := \pr{C = c}= \prod_{a\in c} p \prod_{a \not\in c} \co{p} | 524 | + \pw{t} := \pr{T = t}= \prod_{a\in t} p \prod_{a \not\in t} \co{p} |
525 | \label{eq:weight.tchoice} | 525 | \label{eq:weight.tchoice} |
526 | \end{equation} | 526 | \end{equation} |
527 | % | 527 | % |
528 | - \item[Stable Models.] Each \acl{TC} $c$, together with the rules and the other facts of a specification, defines a set of \aclp{SM} associated with that choice, that \remark{we denote by $\tcgen{c}$}{put this in the introduction, where core concepts are presented}. | 528 | + \item[Stable Models.] Each \acl{TC} $t$, together with the rules and the other facts of a specification, defines a set of \aclp{SM} associated with that choice, that \remark{we denote by $\tcgen{t}$}{put this in the introduction, where core concepts are presented}. |
529 | 529 | ||
530 | - Given a \acl{SM} $s \in \fml{S}$, a \acl{TC} $c$, and variables/values $\theta_{s,c} \in \intcc{0, 1}$, | 530 | + Given a \acl{SM} $s \in \fml{S}$, a \acl{TC} $t$, and variables/values $\theta_{s,t} \in \intcc{0, 1}$, |
531 | \begin{equation} | 531 | \begin{equation} |
532 | - \pw{s, c} := \begin{cases} | ||
533 | - \theta_{s,c} & \text{if~} s \in \tcgen{c}\cr | 532 | + \pw{s, t} := \begin{cases} |
533 | + \theta_{s,t} & \text{if~} s \in \tcgen{t}\cr | ||
534 | 0&\text{otherwise} | 534 | 0&\text{otherwise} |
535 | \end{cases} | 535 | \end{cases} |
536 | \label{eq:weight.stablemodel} | 536 | \label{eq:weight.stablemodel} |
537 | \end{equation} | 537 | \end{equation} |
538 | - such that $\sum_{s\in \tcgen{c}} \theta_{s,c} = 1$. | 538 | + such that $\sum_{s\in \tcgen{t}} \theta_{s,t} = 1$. |
539 | % | 539 | % |
540 | \item[Classes.] \label{item:class.cases} Each class is either the inconsistent class, $\inconsistent$, or is represented by some set of \aclp{SM}. | 540 | \item[Classes.] \label{item:class.cases} Each class is either the inconsistent class, $\inconsistent$, or is represented by some set of \aclp{SM}. |
541 | \begin{description} | 541 | \begin{description} |
542 | \item[Inconsistent Class.] The inconsistent class contains events that are logically inconsistent, thus should never be observed: | 542 | \item[Inconsistent Class.] The inconsistent class contains events that are logically inconsistent, thus should never be observed: |
543 | \begin{equation} | 543 | \begin{equation} |
544 | - \pw{\inconsistent, c} := 0. | 544 | + \pw{\inconsistent, t} := 0. |
545 | \label{eq:weight.class.inconsistent} | 545 | \label{eq:weight.class.inconsistent} |
546 | \end{equation} | 546 | \end{equation} |
547 | \item[Independent Class.] A world that neither contains nor is contained in a \acl{SM} describes a case that, according to the specification, shouldn't exist. So the respective weight is set to zero: | 547 | \item[Independent Class.] A world that neither contains nor is contained in a \acl{SM} describes a case that, according to the specification, shouldn't exist. So the respective weight is set to zero: |
548 | \begin{equation} | 548 | \begin{equation} |
549 | - \pw{\indepclass, c} := 0. | 549 | + \pw{\indepclass, t} := 0. |
550 | \label{eq:weight.class.independent} | 550 | \label{eq:weight.class.independent} |
551 | \end{equation} | 551 | \end{equation} |
552 | \item[Other Classes.] The extension must be constant within a class, its value should result from the elements in the \acl{SC}, and respect the assumption \ref{assumption:smodels.independence} (\aclp{SM} independence): | 552 | \item[Other Classes.] The extension must be constant within a class, its value should result from the elements in the \acl{SC}, and respect the assumption \ref{assumption:smodels.independence} (\aclp{SM} independence): |
553 | \begin{equation} | 553 | \begin{equation} |
554 | - \pw{\class{e}, c} := \sum_{k=1}^{n}\pw{s_k, c},~\text{if}~\stablecore{e} = \set{s_1, \ldots, s_n}. | 554 | + \pw{\class{e}, t} := \sum_{k=1}^{n}\pw{s_k, t},~\text{if}~\stablecore{e} = \set{s_1, \ldots, s_n}. |
555 | \label{eq:weight.class.other} | 555 | \label{eq:weight.class.other} |
556 | \end{equation} | 556 | \end{equation} |
557 | and | 557 | and |
558 | \begin{equation} | 558 | \begin{equation} |
559 | - \pw{\class{e}} := \sum_{c \in \fml{C}} \pw{\class{e}, c}\pw{c}. | 559 | + \pw{\class{e}} := \sum_{t \in \fml{T}} \pw{\class{e}, t}\pw{t}. |
560 | \label{eq:weight.class.unconditional} | 560 | \label{eq:weight.class.unconditional} |
561 | \end{equation} | 561 | \end{equation} |
562 | \remark{}{Changed from $\prod$ to $\sum$ to represent ``either'' instead of ``both'' since the later is not consistent with the ``only one stable model at a time'' assumption.} | 562 | \remark{}{Changed from $\prod$ to $\sum$ to represent ``either'' instead of ``both'' since the later is not consistent with the ``only one stable model at a time'' assumption.} |
@@ -564,17 +564,17 @@ The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ | @@ -564,17 +564,17 @@ The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ | ||
564 | % | 564 | % |
565 | \item[Events.] \label{item:event.cases} Each (general) event $e$ is in the class defined by its \acl{SC}, $\stablecore{e}$. So, we set: | 565 | \item[Events.] \label{item:event.cases} Each (general) event $e$ is in the class defined by its \acl{SC}, $\stablecore{e}$. So, we set: |
566 | \begin{equation} | 566 | \begin{equation} |
567 | - \pw{e, c} := \frac{\pw{\class{e}, c}}{\# \class{e}} . | 567 | + \pw{e, t} := \frac{\pw{\class{e}, t}}{\# \class{e}} . |
568 | \label{eq:weight.events} | 568 | \label{eq:weight.events} |
569 | \end{equation} | 569 | \end{equation} |
570 | and | 570 | and |
571 | \begin{equation} | 571 | \begin{equation} |
572 | - \pw{e} := \sum_{c\in\fml{C}} \pw{e, c} \pw{c}. | 572 | + \pw{e} := \sum_{t\in\fml{T}} \pw{e, t} \pw{t}. |
573 | \label{eq:weight.events.unconditional} | 573 | \label{eq:weight.events.unconditional} |
574 | \end{equation} | 574 | \end{equation} |
575 | - % \remark{instead of that equation}{if we set $\pw{s,c} := \theta_{s,c}$ in equation \eqref{eq:weight.stablemodel} here we do: | 575 | + % \remark{instead of that equation}{if we set $\pw{s,t} := \theta_{s,t}$ in equation \eqref{eq:weight.stablemodel} here we do: |
576 | % $$ | 576 | % $$ |
577 | - % \pw{e} := \sum_{c\in\fml{C}} \pw{e, c}\pw{c}. | 577 | + % \pw{e} := \sum_{t\in\fml{T}} \pw{e, t}\pw{t}. |
578 | % $$ | 578 | % $$ |
579 | % By the way, this is the \emph{marginalization + bayes theorem} in statistics: | 579 | % By the way, this is the \emph{marginalization + bayes theorem} in statistics: |
580 | % $$ | 580 | % $$ |
@@ -585,13 +585,13 @@ The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ | @@ -585,13 +585,13 @@ The ``extension'' phase, traced by equations (\ref{eq:prob.total.choice}) and (\ | ||
585 | 585 | ||
586 | % PARAMETERS FOR UNCERTAINTY | 586 | % PARAMETERS FOR UNCERTAINTY |
587 | \begin{itemize} | 587 | \begin{itemize} |
588 | - \item \todo{Remark that $\pw{\inconsistent, c} = 0$ is independent of the \acl{TC}.} | 588 | + \item \todo{Remark that $\pw{\inconsistent, t} = 0$ is independent of the \acl{TC}.} |
589 | \item Consider the event $bc$. Since $\class{bc} = \indepclass$, from \cref{eq:weight.class.independent} we get $\mu\at{bc} = 0$. | 589 | \item Consider the event $bc$. Since $\class{bc} = \indepclass$, from \cref{eq:weight.class.independent} we get $\mu\at{bc} = 0$. |
590 | \item \todo{Remark that equation \eqref{eq:weight.events.unconditional}, together with observations, can be used to learn about the \emph{initial} probabilities of the atoms, in the specification.} | 590 | \item \todo{Remark that equation \eqref{eq:weight.events.unconditional}, together with observations, can be used to learn about the \emph{initial} probabilities of the atoms, in the specification.} |
591 | \end{itemize} | 591 | \end{itemize} |
592 | 592 | ||
593 | 593 | ||
594 | -The $\theta_{s,c}$ parameters in equation \eqref{eq:weight.stablemodel} express the \emph{specification's} lack of knowledge about the weight assignment, when a single \acl{TC} entails more than one \acl{SM}. In that case, how to distribute the respective weights? Our proposal to address this problem consists in assigning an unknown weight, $\theta_{s,c}$, conditional on the \acl{TC}, $c$, to each \acl{SM} $s$. This approach allows the expression of an unknown quantity and future estimation, given observed data. | 594 | +The $\theta_{s,t}$ parameters in equation \eqref{eq:weight.stablemodel} express the \emph{specification's} lack of knowledge about the weight assignment, when a single \acl{TC} entails more than one \acl{SM}. In that case, how to distribute the respective weights? Our proposal to address this problem consists in assigning an unknown weight, $\theta_{s,t}$, conditional on the \acl{TC}, $t$, to each \acl{SM} $s$. This approach allows the expression of an unknown quantity and future estimation, given observed data. |
595 | 595 | ||
596 | % SUPERSET | 596 | % SUPERSET |
597 | Equation \eqref{eq:weight.class.other} results from conditional independence of \aclp{SM}. | 597 | Equation \eqref{eq:weight.class.other} results from conditional independence of \aclp{SM}. |
@@ -608,14 +608,14 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | @@ -608,14 +608,14 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | ||
608 | \item[\Aclp{TC}.] The \aclp{TC}, and respective \aclp{SM}, are | 608 | \item[\Aclp{TC}.] The \aclp{TC}, and respective \aclp{SM}, are |
609 | \begin{center} | 609 | \begin{center} |
610 | \begin{tabular}{ll|r} | 610 | \begin{tabular}{ll|r} |
611 | - \textbf{\Acl{TC}} & \textbf{\Aclp{SM}} & \textbf{$\pw{c}$}\ | 611 | + \textbf{\Acl{TC}} & \textbf{\Aclp{SM}} & \textbf{$\pw{t}$}\ |
612 | \hline | 612 | \hline |
613 | $a$ & $ab, ac$ & $0.3$\\ | 613 | $a$ & $ab, ac$ & $0.3$\\ |
614 | $\co{a} = \neg a$ & $\co{a}$ & $\co{0.3} = 0.7$ | 614 | $\co{a} = \neg a$ & $\co{a}$ & $\co{0.3} = 0.7$ |
615 | \end{tabular} | 615 | \end{tabular} |
616 | \end{center} | 616 | \end{center} |
617 | % | 617 | % |
618 | - \item[\Aclp{SM}.] The $\theta_{s,c}$ parameters in this example are | 618 | + \item[\Aclp{SM}.] The $\theta_{s,t}$ parameters in this example are |
619 | $$ | 619 | $$ |
620 | \theta_{ab,\co{a}} = \theta_{ac,\co{a}} = \theta_{\co{a}, a} = 0 | 620 | \theta_{ab,\co{a}} = \theta_{ac,\co{a}} = \theta_{\co{a}, a} = 0 |
621 | $$ | 621 | $$ |
@@ -628,9 +628,9 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | @@ -628,9 +628,9 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | ||
628 | \begin{equation*} | 628 | \begin{equation*} |
629 | \begin{array}{l|ll|r} | 629 | \begin{array}{l|ll|r} |
630 | \stablecore{e} | 630 | \stablecore{e} |
631 | - & \pw{s_k, c= \co{a}} | ||
632 | - & \pw{s_k, c= a} | ||
633 | - & \pw{\class{e}}=\sum_{c}\pw{\class{e},c}\pw{c} | 631 | + & \pw{s_k, t= \co{a}} |
632 | + & \pw{s_k, t= a} | ||
633 | + & \pw{\class{e}}=\sum_{t}\pw{\class{e},t}\pw{t} | ||
634 | \\ | 634 | \\ |
635 | \hline | 635 | \hline |
636 | \co{a} | 636 | \co{a} |
@@ -675,16 +675,19 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | @@ -675,16 +675,19 @@ We continue with the specification from Equation \eqref{eq:example.1}. | ||
675 | & 1 | 675 | & 1 |
676 | \end{array} | 676 | \end{array} |
677 | \end{equation*} | 677 | \end{equation*} |
678 | - \item[Normalization.] To get a weight that sums up to one, we compute the \emph{normalization factor}. Since $\pw{\cdot}$ is constant on classes we have | 678 | + \item[Normalization.] To get a weight that sums up to one, we compute the \emph{normalization factor}. Since $\pw{\cdot}$ is constant on classes, |
679 | \begin{equation*} | 679 | \begin{equation*} |
680 | Z := \sum_{e\in\fml{E}} \pw{e} | 680 | Z := \sum_{e\in\fml{E}} \pw{e} |
681 | - = \sum_{\class{e} \in\fml{E}/\sim} \frac{\pw{\class{e}}}{\#\class{e}}, | 681 | + = \sum_{\class{e} \in\class{\fml{E}}} \frac{\pw{\class{e}}}{\#\class{e}}, |
682 | \end{equation*} | 682 | \end{equation*} |
683 | - that divides the weight function into a normalized weight: | 683 | + that divides the weight function into a normalized weight |
684 | \begin{equation*} | 684 | \begin{equation*} |
685 | \pr{e} := \frac{\pw{e}}{Z}. | 685 | \pr{e} := \frac{\pw{e}}{Z}. |
686 | \end{equation*} | 686 | \end{equation*} |
687 | - | 687 | + such that |
688 | + $$ | ||
689 | + \sum_{e \in \fml{E}} \pr{e} = 1. | ||
690 | + $$ | ||
688 | For the SBF example, | 691 | For the SBF example, |
689 | \begin{equation*} | 692 | \begin{equation*} |
690 | \begin{array}{lr|r|rr} | 693 | \begin{array}{lr|r|rr} |
@@ -969,7 +972,7 @@ Considering the probabilities given in \cref{Figure_Alarm} we obtain the followi | @@ -969,7 +972,7 @@ Considering the probabilities given in \cref{Figure_Alarm} we obtain the followi | ||
969 | \item The physical system might have \emph{latent} variables, possibly also represented in the specification. These variables are never observed, so observations should be concentrated \emph{somewhere else}. | 972 | \item The physical system might have \emph{latent} variables, possibly also represented in the specification. These variables are never observed, so observations should be concentrated \emph{somewhere else}. |
970 | \item Comment on the possibility of extending equation \eqref{eq:weight.events.unconditional} with parameters expressing further uncertainties, enabling a tuning of the model's \aclp{TC}, given observations. | 973 | \item Comment on the possibility of extending equation \eqref{eq:weight.events.unconditional} with parameters expressing further uncertainties, enabling a tuning of the model's \aclp{TC}, given observations. |
971 | \begin{equation*} | 974 | \begin{equation*} |
972 | - \pw{e} := \sum_{c\in\fml{C}} \pw{e, c}\theta_c. | 975 | + \pw{e} := \sum_{c\in\fml{T}} \pw{e, c}\theta_c. |
973 | \end{equation*} | 976 | \end{equation*} |
974 | \end{itemize} | 977 | \end{itemize} |
975 | 978 |