cplint.plp 326 Bytes
heads :- &problog("0.4").
col(1,red) :- &log("0.3").
col(1,blue) :- &log("0.7").
col(2,red) :- &log("0.2").
col(2,green) :- &log("0.3").
col(2,blue) :- &log("0.5").

:-  not { col(C,_) } = 1, C=1..2.

win :- heads, col(_,red).
win :- col(1,C), col(2,C).

% &evidence(col(2,green),true).
&query(win).
&query(win, col(2,green)).